Let it be borne on the flag under which we rally in every exigency, that we have one country, one constitution, one destiny. -- Daniel Webster

Sunday, October 30, 2016

If Hillary Clinton Drops in the Polls

in any major way it won't be because of "Comeygate."

Below is an excerpt from Dr. Sam Wang on the Princeton Election Consortium web site.

Due to political polarization it cannot be expected that the muddled news story about FBI Director Comey's supposed discovery of new questionable Clinton State Department e-mails will affect the Presidential race to any great degree.  

Further, there will likely be new derogatory news stories about Trump.  In fact, The Washington Post already has one on page 1 today.  

There is no need to panic about the Presidential race.  However, it is a good time to renew questioning of the media's methods.  


Dr. Sam Wang on "Comeygate:"   

  1. The national race will not change meaningfully. This is not a story that changes anyone’s mind. Maybe the margin (national or Meta) between the two candidates will move by 1 percentage point when aggregated…2 points max. It doesn’t change the high likelihood of a Clinton win.
  2. Journalists and pundits will continue to feed hysterics by fussing over the Comey story. They may even attempt to use polling evidence to justify their coverage. However, note that national polls had already tightened by 1-2 percentage points, even before Comeygate.


  1. For a simple list of questions the FBI needs to answer, see here:


  2. Is it time for Comey to go? There are doubts Comey can be effective now. I'll have more on this as events warrant.


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