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Let it be borne on the flag under which we rally in every exigency, that we have one country, one constitution, one destiny. -- Daniel Webster

Monday, July 25, 2016

Countering the Polling Naysayers

With the Democratic convention barely underway, pundits and prognosticators are rushing to judgment regarding a few new polls.  Few if any of us have seen the actual poll results.  However, Dr. Sam Wang at Princeton Election Consortium has the correct information on Hillary Clinton's standing at the moment.  Using only polls and not past performance, wind socks, or gut feelings, Wang has been amazingly accurate in numerous recent elections.

Furthermore, Wang reports that a new CNN/ORC poll after the convention states that 44% of respondents were less likely to vote for Donald Trump while only 42% were more likely to do so.  That certainly doesn't sound like a convention bounce.

So the election is not today.  I am not denying that the Hillary Clinton campaign has a great deal of work to do.  And in watching the opening part of the convention this evening, the focus has been on old-fashioned identity politics, as it is called, with little or no focus on actual policy proposals which would help all people economically.  Perhaps this will come later on.

For now, polls should be looked at critically.   They may, however, help prevent over-confidence on the part of Democrats -- because over-confidence is not justified and dangerous.

Sam Wang on the new polls:
Clinton Continues to Lead in State Polls

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