Trump Support Beginning to Collapse?

See Public Policy Polling results below.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/09/clinton-leads-in-key-battlegrounds-seen-as-big-debate-winner.html

Hillary Clinton Is Likable After All?

Close readers of this blog know by now that pundit comments on the Presidential race must be closely scrutinized.  Specifically, all claims regarding polls and polling must be looked at critically, for very few (if any?) reporters are schooled in polling and how to read poll results.

I make no claims at being an expert, myself, so I often refer readers to the Princeton Election Consortium.   The consortium, likewise, must be examined.  However, the work the Princeton group does under the leadership of Dr. Sam Wang is some of the best available today.

For my purposes today, I am interested in relating how poorly the press and media did in August and September, beginning with an extremely poorly-sourced Associated Press story which had no facts to back up its assertion that the activities of the Clinton Foundation "raised questions."  Others, including Krugman have written about this Associated Press fiasco, so I do not need to duplicate their work.

But apparently many people were somewhat stunned to see how likable Ms. Clinton appeared in last Monday night's debate after months and years of Republican rightists claiming she is ________, or ___________, or _______ -- you fill in the blank.   Or let Paul Krugman do it for you:


Paul Krugman on How the Race Got Close

Arizona Newspaper Endorses a Democrat for President for the First Time

Editorial hits nail on the head in race

The Arizona Republic has endorsed a Democrat for the first time since it was established in 1892.   The editorial itself is a marvel in perspicacity.   Highly recommended.  A must-read.  

"Arizona Republic" Endorsement of Hillary Clinton

Digesting the "Debate"

The nation woke up this morning having a better idea what kind of people the two major candidates for President really are.  Regular readers of this blog will know which candidate this writer believes to be the true next-President.

As I work through the various articles about the so-called debate being released today, I am comfortable referring readers to a previous post here about the Princeton Election Consortium's view on pundit reactions.  I do recognize that some pundits have very useful and even pungent things to say today and I value their words.

As for the effect on the race, I believe Dr. Wang's words ring true today.  (See previous post below.)


(Dr. Sam Wang is the writer at the Princeton Election Consortium web site, and its lead researcher.)   

The Alternative to Any Unwanted Debates

For those who may seek a suitable alternative to needless debates, televised or otherwise, I suggest Leaves of Grass by Walt Whitman.   Just a proper study of this one poem alone will offer not only an antidote but an answer to our domestic problems.  So -- happy studying tonight or anytime....


***

Walt Whitman (1819–1892).  Leaves of Grass.  

I Sit and Look Out 

I SIT and look out upon all the sorrows of the world, and upon all oppression and shame;
I hear secret convulsive sobs from young men, at anguish with themselves, remorseful after deeds done;
I see, in low life, the mother misused by her children, dying, neglected, gaunt, desperate;
I see the wife misused by her husband—I see the treacherous seducer of young women;
I mark the ranklings of jealousy and unrequited love, attempted to be hid—I see these sights on the earth;	5
I see the workings of battle, pestilence, tyranny—I see martyrs and prisoners;
I observe a famine at sea—I observe the sailors casting lots who shall be kill’d, to preserve the lives of the rest;
I observe the slights and degradations cast by arrogant persons upon laborers, the poor, and upon negroes, and the like;
All these—All the meanness and agony without end, I sitting, look out upon,
See, hear, and am silent.	10

The So-Called Debate: What Not to Do

If I were a swami (and I'm not) here is what I would tell me "client."

Don't panic.  Be calm.  Be somewhat detached.  Be sanguine.

And don't depend on pundits!  

The article from Princeton Election Consortium gives reasons why.

(More later.)


Don't Rely on Pundits: Princeton Election Consortium

Good News for Democrats: State Legislative Races Looking Up

Sunday Quick Link --

Democrats Have High Hopes for Switching Control of State Houses

Mirrors | Hillary Clinton

Clinton Leading Trump By Six Points in Latest NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll

In NBC's first poll of likely voters, Hillary Clinton was leading Donald Trump by six points.

We are cautioned, of course, to avoid focusing too much attention on any one poll.  But this appears to be the most recent data, and was taken from likely voters.  This is a good sign.  It is much different from all the reports of "tightening."


Clinton Leading Trump By Six Points: NBC, Wall Street



N. B. America cannot afford a misogynistic, lying demagogue of Trump's ilk.  

Will Free Media Trump Paid Advertising in Presidential Race?

The article linked to below states that paid television advertising is getting less effective every election cycle.

There are signs this is the case this year.  I do see the situation as a danger.  The concerns that the Trump campaign should have been "put away" long ago are valid.

The U.S. has never had a demagogue like Trump nominated by a major party.  The methods of fighting such a person must be different.

Hillary Clinton can still win this race.  The question is whether the media will be professional and do its job, or instead succumb to the glitz of a very experienced showman.

Will Free Media Trump Paid Advertising in Presidential Race?

Trump's Violation of Campaign Norms Alarms Political Class

The New York Times  reported on Sunday that the Trump campaign's "anything goes" operation has alarmed political leaders across the political spectrum.

Certainly, Trump is in a category by himself when it comes to self-serving campaign behavior.  The list of norms violated is too long to be listed here now, but many examples have been given on this blog and through other media sources over the last months.

The most alarming statement, perhaps, in The Times article is the fact that Trump has inflicted the Stockholm syndrome on America.  I believe this to be true.  Again, many examples of the effect of this psychological abuse can be given.  And it didn't just start with Trump's official Presidential campaign effort.

The time is long past due for thoughtful and caring Americans to stand up and say "enough is enough."  It is true that an alternate program of economic assistance and stimulus is badly needed to help restore good-paying jobs.  A Trump Presidency is not the way to go.  For a Trump win would be simply unconscionable.


Trump Campaign Sets Alarming Precedent

The Antidote to Poll Panic

You have probably felt it.  I myself have felt it.  A tinge of something like panic, or at least significant disquietude over the Presidential race reportedly "tightening."  The article linked to below gives plenty of reasons why D. Trump is still far from winning the White House.  In fact, he is still far from putting together an organized campaign.

This does not mean that Mrs. Clinton is a shoe-in, of course.  It does mean, however, that political writers are jumping the gun on any Trump "momentum."  In fact, Mitt Romney was said to have momentum after he did better in the first debate than expected.

The article below also agrees with Dr. Sam Wang of Princeton Election Consortium who has consistently found solid support for Hillary Clinton in a polarized electorate.

So, perhaps we are nearer the day when we can all get back to a discussion of the issues which matter:  earning a livable wage, racial justice, peace in a divided world.


Trump remains in great danger of losing election:
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/

Photo source:  boardgamegeek.com

The Return of "Bad" Trump?

Many seem to think so...


http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/296470-trump-stumbles-after-surge-in-polls

Double Standard Seen in Press Trump Coverage

Quick Link --

Left Sees Double Standard in Recent Trump Press Coverage


Coming soon --  Should the President use his inherent powers to mitigate effects of skewed press treatment of Trump?  

Trump the Man vs. Trump the Brand

Important

via Patriot in Exigency --

Below is the link to the Newsweek cover story being hailed by "Huffington Post" and others. It truly is a block-buster. Things with Trump are extremely serious in a way most of us are not aware. Newsweek here performs a monumental public service in demonstrating how Trump the businessman is a walking conflict of interest with Trump the potential President.  Such conflicts of interest would put the United States at serious risk.  The importance of this cannot be over-emphasized.  

See all the details here:

http://www.newsweek.com/2016/09...­

The Truth: Trump Has Gained No Ground According to Polling

...though there is evidence of Clinton losing ground.

The loss of support for Hillary Clinton is not necessarily permanent as the writer here shows.  In fact, any loss can be explained by the end of the convention "bounce."  

The most important point is Trump has essentially gained no ground in six weeks.  He has, as this author says, a "steel ceiling."

Careful Analysis Shows Trump Has Gained No Ground According to Polling

N.B.   Criticism of a double standard with the press concerning Trump continues to swell.  I'll have more soon.  In the meantime, Trump remains as dangerous as ever.  I'll have more on that soon, as well.  

The Right-Wing Effort to Destroy a Liberal Education

The word "liberal" here can be in both senses of the word, if you please.  Whatever the intent of the right, the effect of their efforts has been to weaken both what they would call liberalism as well as the classic liberal education in the sense of the humanities.  The article at the link below tells more.

As the writer shows, the rise in college tuition costs is not an accident.  It is the direct result of cut-backs in funding by state legislatures all over the country.  And as the writer further shows, this attack on colleges and universities happens to coincide perfectly with the broader agenda of the corporate world.

Although rather wordy, the article does help explain why coursework which may not happen to interest corporate honchos is nevertheless important to a civilized people.  If knowledge is power, this article can be a beginning for a gathering of power to oppose the big-money trend in higher education.

How the Right Seeks to Destroy College

George W. Bush Suffered Fainting Spell in Office

The Internet and news media are suddenly all atwitter about Hillary Clinton's departure today from a September 11, memorial event.

Health issues are difficult for lay persons to write about, this blogger included.  The historical record is showing that Pres. George W. Bush had a fainting spell after choking on a pretzel.

Whatever the reason for Mrs. Clinton's troubles today we should all be wishing her Godspeed and the best of health.  Her quick reappearance before the public should be reassuring for the moment.


Pres. G. W. Bush's Fainting Spell:
http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/washdc/jan02/2002-01-13-bush-faint.htm

Has Media Become Inured to Trump Outrages?

Important Link

In a situation such as this it is better to get one's anger out in the open, look at it, examine it, then take appropriate action.

Democrats are trying to do this in an honest way regarding the outrages of Trump.  The media is not.


The following links to Huffington Post podcast.
Has Media Become Too Comfortable with Trump?

Historically Pro-Republican Pollster Has Hillary Clinton Back in the Lead

Quick Post --  

The New York Times is publishing a half dozen or so of the various Presidential polls.  The clear majority of these polls continue to show Hillary Clinton in the lead.

Most interestingly, Rasmussen, whose earlier poll had Trump with a tiny lead -- and within a margin of error -- is now showing Ms. Clinton ahead by four points, a gain of five points since the earlier survey.


Latest Rasmussen Poll

Clinton Leading in 50-state Poll: Washington Post

Survey Shows Clinton and Trump Tied in Texas

In a thorough review of polls in all fifty states, The Washington Post makes clear Hillary Clinton is quite solidly in the lead.

This underscores the fact that national popularity polls don't matter as much as the totality of state polls.  This approach is the one used by the Princeton Election Consortium, for example.  No one poll should be given too much weight.  With recent reports showing Clinton possibly leading in Georgia and even Arizona, it is Trump and not Clinton who must persuade the country he is ready to be President.

50-state Poll Shows Clear Clinton Lead

Theater of the Absurd

...and the Dangerous

Mike Daisey as Donald Trump

The September 2016 issue of American Theatre has an amazingly useful article on the Donald Trump campaign analyzing it from the standpoint of the theater.  As an acting student I have learned quite a bit about the business of being a thespian.  And after reading the article, I am clearer than ever that what D. Trump is doing is essentially theater.  The danger in this case is the fact that Trump is running for the most powerful political office in the world.

The Presidency is not play-acting.  Many American voters know this.  This is why Trump's polling numbers are anemic in most cases.

And yet Trump is throwing out all the rules of campaigning and in a country inured to "reality television," the nation's first reality TV star to be nominated by a so-called major political party has amassed a large following of people who are content to be his audience.  The danger of all this can hardly be over-emphasized.


Reference:  

"The Theatre of Trump"

by Mike Daisey, actor

American Theatre, September 2016, p. 26

(Article does contain a couple of instances of profanity.  Adults are cautioned regarding use by children.  Children under 13 are asked to avoid the article entirely.)   

Media Coverage "Gores" Clinton: Krugman

New York Times columnist accurately describes the recent media coverage of Hillary Clinton.


Rush Link:


http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/05/opinion/hillary-clinton-gets-gored.html

Polls Overwhelmingly Show Clinton Lead

Quick Post --

A New York Times summary of polls shows the vast majority continue to reflect a Clinton lead as the traditional Labor Day kick-off approaches.  With Ms. Clinton supposedly "unpopular" it is clear D. Trump is even more so.   


New York Times Summary of Latest Polls


Donald Trump was nominated under dubious circumstances including a show biz media circus.  His candidacy most certainly does not represent the real America even though the economic anxiety of Americans is real.  

Public Policy Polling Finds a Steady Race

For those of us who find it imperative that Donald Trump not be elected to the Presidency, the following information is most helpful.

One wonders, though, just who is responsible for a supposed drop in the popularity of Hillary Clinton.  I find Ms. Clinton to be a fine public servant, a good diplomat, highly intelligent and caring. As a politician, she is not a John F. Kennedy.   But perhaps, just perhaps, America has had enough of the usual politicians.  And if we are sure Trump is not the answer -- and around here we are -- than Ms. Clinton is a decent, and necessary, choice.  Wouldn't this be a better approach for the press and media to take, rather than focusing so much on the negatives?


                                                                                  http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/polls/